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Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter "D" are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these "facts" have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics. As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves. With the breakout success of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around. London Times Book of the Week (2014)
Book Details
- Publisher: Harry N. Abrams
- Publish Date: Jul 21st, 2015
- Pages: 336
- Language: English
- Edition: undefined - undefined
- Dimensions: 8.00in - 5.44in - 0.94in - 0.70lb
- EAN: 9781468311020
- Categories: • Statistics• Statistics• Probability & Statistics - General
About the Author
Smith, Gary: - Gary Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College in Claremont, California. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Yale University and taught there as an Assistant Professor for seven years. He has won two teaching awards and has written (or co-authored) eighty academic papers and twelve books including Standard Deviations: Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie With Statistics, published by Overlook. His research has been featured by Bloomberg Radio Network, CNBC, The Brian Lehrer Show, Forbes, The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Motley Fool, Newsweek, and BusinessWeek.
Praise for this book
A very entertaining book about a very serious problem. We deceive ourselves all the time with statistics, and it is time we wised up.--Robert J. Shiller, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics and author of Irrational Exuberance
Statistical reasoning is the most used and abused form of rhetoric in the field of finance. Standard Deviations is an approachable and effective means to arm oneself against the onslaught statistical hyperbole in our modern age. Professor Smith has done us all a tremendous service.--Bryan White, Managing Director, BlackRock, Inc.
Standard Deviations will teach you how not to be deceived by lies masquerading as statistics. Written in an entertaining style with contemporary examples, this book should appeal to everyone, whether interested in marriages or mortgages, the wealth of your family, or the health of the economy. This should be required reading for everyone living in this age of (too much?) information.--Arthur Benjamin, Professor of Mathematics, Harvey Mudd College and author of Secrets of Mental Math
Standard Deviations shows in compelling fashion why humans are so susceptible to the misuse of statistical evidence and why this matters. I know of no other book that explains important concepts such as selection bias in such an entertaining and memorable manner.--Richard J. Murnane, Thompson Professor of Education and Society, Harvard Graduate School of Education.